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Phase 1 — London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street
Route Overview
HS2 Phase 1 route sections and affected areas
Route Section Types
Key Findings
What 20 years of data reveals about HS2's impact on property prices
Anticipation Penalty
Properties within 1km of the route underperformed the national average by 13.8 percentage points between Royal Assent (2017) and construction starting (2020). The market punished uncertainty more than actual construction.
Construction Bounce-Back
Once construction began in 2020, properties within 1km grew 16.8% — outpacing the 2-3km band (+6.7%) and national average (+12.0%). Actual disruption had less impact than the preceding uncertainty.
Volatility Premium
Quarter-over-quarter price volatility within 1km of the route is 2.8 times higher than the national average. Even 2-3km away, volatility remains 1.7x national levels.
Liquidity Decline
The corridor's share of national transaction volume dropped from 1.92% pre-announcement to 1.65% pre-construction — a 14% relative decline. Fewer buyers are willing to transact near the route.
Phase 2 Cancellation
After Phase 2 was cancelled in October 2023, properties within 1km underperformed national by 3.1 percentage points. The 2-3km band was unaffected, suggesting the impact is concentrated on the closest properties.
Price Trends
How property prices near the HS2 route have changed since 2005
Property Prices Near HS2
Shows the percentage point difference between each band's price growth and the national average growth since Q1 2005 (4-quarter moving average). Positive = outperformed national, negative = underperformed. A widening gap after an HS2 milestone suggests the event affected local prices.
Transaction Volume
Sales activity near the route over time
Transaction Volume
Quarterly sales near the route vs nationalDistance Impact
Current property prices by distance from the route
Price by Distance from Route
Q4 2025Route Map
Interactive map of the HS2 Phase 1 route from London to Birmingham
Methodology
Price data is sourced from HM Land Registry transaction records (2005–present), covering >29 million transactions. Properties are matched to the HS2 route via postcode proximity — distance is calculated from each postcode centroid to the nearest point on the route geometry using the Haversine formula. Distance bands are 0–1km, 1–2km, and 2–3km.
Postcodes whose nearest section is a station (Euston, Old Oak Common, Birmingham Interchange, Curzon Street) are excluded to remove urban hub price bias — leaving only properties along the construction corridor. The national baseline uses all UK transactions to provide a control group.
The “Diff vs National” view uses a difference-in-differences approach: it shows the percentage point gap between corridor price growth and national price growth since Q1 2005, smoothed with a 4-quarter moving average to reduce noise from the smaller corridor sample sizes (~600– 1,900 transactions per quarter per band vs ~245,000 nationally).
Stay informed about HS2
Get updates on how HS2 affects property prices and market trends along the route.